About & Methodology
Research sources, methods and limitations.
About this project
Nigeria Data Intelligence is a data analytics and research
project exploring historical electoral participation and
long-term population growth scenarios across Nigeria.
The project contains two research areas:
1. Nigerian Electoral Participation Analytics
2. Nigerian State Population Scenarios to 2040
Electoral Participation Analytics
The electoral component examines available historical
election-related data, including voter registration,
accreditation, ballots cast, valid votes and rejected votes.
Important distinction
Permanent Voter Card (PVC) collection is not the same as
voter turnout. PVC collection figures must not be
interpreted as votes cast or voters accredited.
Data sources and verification
The project includes 2019 and 2023 INEC PVC data.
A 2019 presidential national participation record was
prepared from an archived INEC national declaration.
The 2019 national declaration reports:
- Registered voters: 84,004,084
- Registered voters as collated: 82,344,107
- Accredited voters: 29,364,209
- Valid votes: 27,324,583
- Rejected votes: 1,289,607
- Ballots cast: 28,614,190
- Published turnout: 35.66%
The published turnout uses accredited voters divided by
registered voters as collated.
State-level 2019 participation figures remain under
verification. There are 12 unresolved source discrepancies
and 5 national reconciliation issues.
The canonical 2015, 2019 and 2023 state participation
dataset has not yet been populated.
No election winner prediction is presented.
Population Scenarios to 2040
The population component uses a 2006 state census baseline
reproduced in a World Bank document, with comparison
against an NBS statistical publication.
The model explores three illustrative annual growth rates:
- Low scenario: 1.5%
- Central scenario: 2.5%
- High scenario: 3.5%
These are sensitivity scenarios, not independently
validated demographic forecasts, official population
estimates or statistical confidence intervals.
The 1991 census data have historical state-boundary
comparability limitations. Published 2008–2010 population
projections are not independent census observations.
Interpretation and limitations
Outputs depend on source availability, geographic
definitions, data quality and modelling assumptions.
Users should review the source documentation and
methodology before interpreting or reusing results.
This project is intended for exploratory research,
education and data transparency.
Publication status
Research prototype, published November 2026.
2026/2027 PVC tracker figures appear only after review against official INEC documents. Historical 2023 figures come from INEC's published dataset, with flagged records marked.
Map boundaries: GRID3 via geoBoundaries (CC BY 4.0). Population figures are illustrative scenarios, not official forecasts.